Friday 20 August 2010

Why West Ham Lose

If England fans are guilty of allowing the memory of 1966 to distort their expectations of the current national team, then West Ham fans must be doubly culpable. Not only do we cling to this era because of our players’ contribution at international level, but also because it coincides with our own most successful period which peaked with a European trophy in 1965. “30 years of hurt” (44 years now, and counting) applies for us at domestic as well as international level.

On more than one occasion I have heard England’s standing at major tournaments compared to that of last weekend’s opponents Aston Villa in the Premier League. Better than most other teams? Yes. In the top 33 percentile? More often than not. Capable on their day of matching the best? Yes. Ever going to win the thing? No.

I think this is fair and makes me wonder how you would reverse the analogy when it comes to West Ham. The best comparison I could come up with - and I admit it’s not perfect - is Switzerland. More often than not the Swiss qualify for major tournaments (three of the last five World Cups and three of the last four European Championships) in the same way that West Ham more often than not are in the Premier League (seven of the last nine years). Switzerland have progressed past the group stage on one occasion; West Ham have crept into the top half on three out of nine occasions. Although on their day Switzerland have proven themselves to be capable of beating the tournament’s eventual winners, in the same way that West Ham have proven themselves capable of beating Manchester United on several occasions over the last ten years, there is a limit to how far they will ever progress. Switzerland have reconciled themselves to that fact. West Ham have not.

The world of domestic football is clearly very different to that of international football; the main difference being that there is always the chance that a billionaire will take over your domestic club and buy success, as has been the case at Chelsea and may soon be replicated by Manchester City. Until that day, we would do well to manage our expectations which, judging by the outcry at last Saturday’s result, we are a long way from doing.

Are we really surprised that a side comprising James Milner, Ashley Young and Stilyan Petrov was able to so comfortably beat a team containing James Tomkins, Luis Boa Morte and Radoslav Kovac? I was as guilty as anyone of thinking that the Martin O’Neill factor could work in our favour, but once you strip that out (and remember that, on the contrary, the presence of a new manager almost always gives the players a lift) then a Villa win was really a no-brainer.

This is not to say that it is unreasonable to expect West Ham to push for a top ten finish, but there seems to be a misconception that we have a divine right to leapfrog the likes of Blackburn and Birmingham. We do not, and to do so in the next three years, let alone this season would be a significant achievement.

Everyone has a theory about what is holding us back and I do not claim to have the answer but I do feel that we have a certain Newcastle United-esqe snobbery that encourages us to appoint either ex-West Ham players or “fashionable” managers rather than managers who simply have a good pedigree. We would never have appointed David Moyes in 2002 in the same way that Everton in 2002 would never have appointed someone with Zola’s lack of experience. In fact, I do not believe there is another Premier League club who would have appointed Zola as manager. He was effectively recruited on the strength of his abilities as a player. We might as well have given the job to Dennis Bergkamp or Juninho.

Avram Grant may not exactly be fashionable but in the eyes of many his brief flirtation with Chelsea and the Champions League qualifies him for the job, despite never having managed a team for a full season outside of Israel.

What I am about to say will make me about as popular amongst West Ham fans as Joey Beauchamp, but I honestly believe that, had he been willing to leave his present club, Sam Allardyce would have been a great choice as manager. In the same way that Avram is lauded for half a season here and half a season there, Allardyce has been written off on the basis of half a season at Newcastle which, compared with what was to follow, now looks quite respectable. Blackburn’s win at the weekend over an Everton side containing Jagielka, Arteta, Cahill and Pienaar, was for me undoubtedly the result of the weekend but it almost went unmentioned.

Owen Coyle, another over-achieving manager, brings his Bolton side to Upton Park tomorrow, hoping to replicate last season’s deserved victory. I will go to the match with that inescapable first-home-game-of-the-season optimism. It is the right of every football fan to be a bit deluded. And before you query my sanity for suggesting that expecting a victory over little Bolton is deluded, I would point you to the stats: Bolton have beaten us in each of the last six games; we have only beaten them twice in the last sixteen. Then again, in 1968 we did beat them 7-2 …

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