You're still the one for me, Fat Sam

At this point in Avram Grant’s solitary season in charge, Karren Brady responded to rumours about the manager’s job security by claiming that knee-jerk decisions were for weak people. The truth is sacking Grant at that stage would have been neither weak nor knee-jerk (hence the board’s attempt to replace him weeks later). It would have been the swift correction of a bad appointment.

Following just two wins from the opening 12 matches, we find ourselves fourth from bottom. This is the worst spell in the two and a half years since Avram left, which is testament to Allardyce’s record to date: promotion in season one and a mid-table finish in season two.

The points tally may be similar (nine points under Avram at this stage compared to ten this season) but there is one very big difference. Whereas Grant had no proven track record to reassure us of his competence, the opposite is true of Allardyce.

Everyone – Big Sam included – knows what the problem is: Andy Carroll is injured and no back-up striker was acquired during the summer. He’s not going to admit it but, in short, he’s fucked up. Big time. But if the cause of our malaise is clear, then so is the solution: get through the next few weeks as best we can then watch Carroll (and Winston Reid) make all the difference. Oh, and sign another striker in January.

If (a big If) we assume Carroll puts his hairband back on and starts playing again at the end of the year, then in his absence we need to somehow scrape together a couple of wins and a couple of draws to keep ourselves in the mix. Regardless of the opposition it’ll be tough, but in the shape of Fulham, Crystal Palace and Sunderland there’s hope.

The big question is how we go about accumulating those points when we’ve struggled so much recently. That struggle is largely due to the necessity of playing without a striker following the realisation that Modibo Maiga is as likely to score as Jussi Jääskeläinen is to smile. Mladen Petric has been injured and Carlton Cole lacking match fitness. Carlton should be ready to come back any game now which means we can return to a system which worked pretty effectively at the start of the season (after five games we were 11^th).

It would be foolish to underestimate the impact of Winston Reid’s injury. I do not believe we would have conceded six goals in the last two matches with him at the heart of defence. Put Carroll and Reid back in the team for the second half of the season and we will avoid relegation like Maiga avoids a tackle.

Some fans will tell me I’m wrong, that Allardyce is getting a million different things wrong: Jääskeläinen should be dropped; Joey O’Brien can’t play on the left; we should play some youngsters; Diame needs to start. I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with any of that, but I think it’s just detail. Carroll and Reid will make the difference.

Fans are often accused of being fickle but sometimes they are surprisingly consistent. Just as I refuse to believe that Allardyce – whose appointment I suggested a year before it happened – has lost his way, others who have never taken to him and never will see this dip in form as a welcome opportunity to stick the knife in.

One blogger actually wrote this week that he hopes we lose our next two matches in the hope Allardyce gets the boot. Not so much West Ham Till I Die as West Ham Till I Don’t Like The Manager. The rationale that West Ham’s current poor form is a sacking offence would have seen pretty much every manager since John Lyall leave prematurely. 

Allardyce deserves the benefit of the doubt – and not just out of blind loyalty. Look at the last few Premier League seasons and you will see that the teams who have been relegated broadly fall into two groups: teams who have just been promoted (QPR, Reading, Blackpool, etc) and teams whose manager joined at the start or part way through the season. There are certainly exceptions (just ask Roberto Martinez) but it’s rare that a team that finished mid-table one season are relegated the next.

As West Ham fans who endured the 2002/03 season know, Sam Allardyce can navigate his way through a relegation fight. He’s no Avram Grant. Now he has to show it.