Friday 31 August 2012

Why signing Andy Carroll really is too good to be true

Andy Carroll signs for West Ham six years after Carlos Tevez's shock signing

When West Ham fans woke today to the news that Andy Carroll had signed for the club on a one-year loan deal, few would have reflected that it was exactly six years to the day that Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano joined the club. The euphoria amongst fans celebrating the capture of a player signed by Liverpool for £35m less than two years ago, bore an uncanny resemblance to the excitement felt on that same day in 2006.

Back then, jubilant supporters were oblivious to a clause in the contract that would have dire financial consequences for the club. The £25m fine imposed by the FA (on top of the £5m Premier League fine) is a liability that will sit on West Ham’s balance sheet for years to come. But it did not take a great deal of hindsight to reflect that West Ham signing two of the world’s best players had to be too good to be true.

The financial penalties were only half the story. The inability to integrate the Argentinians into the team turned the ninth-place, FA Cup finalists into relegation certainties. Tevez may have worked wonders in the final ten matches of the season, but that was the bare minimum required to undo the disruptive effects of his arrival. It is easy to laugh at Alan Pardew’s folly in selecting Hayden Mullins and Marlon Harewood ahead of the Argies – and perhaps he should have thrown a bit more caution to the wind in the early stages when Mascherano especially failed to hit the ground running – but this was an all-too-common and real tale of big fishes struggling to adapt to life in a small pond.

It is testament to the short-term memory of the football fan that Andy Carroll’s arrival at Upton Park has been met with near universal approval. Admittedly, his signing is very different to that of Tevez and Mascherano. Carroll has been playing in the Premier League for several years, so there should be no need for a bedding-in period. More importantly, he is anything but a square peg in a round hole, having been targeted specifically to fit into Sam Allardyce’s style of play (ie he is there to head in Matt Jarvis’s crosses). But there are still lessons to be learned from the Tevez saga, that give cause for concern.

Firstly, the big-fish-small-pond syndrome still holds true. Carroll may not be of the same ilk as Tevez, but he is still a player who should be playing for a club with greater ambitions than avoiding relegation. Put simply, he should be playing for a top-five team. What’s more, he knows that. He has spent the whole summer trying to resist a move to east London. West Ham and Liverpool reached a deal weeks ago. Had Carroll wanted to be a West Ham player, this deal would have been tied up back in July.

It has taken a preseason of disparaging comments from Brendan Rodgers and a lack of serious interest from any other club – most notably Newcastle, the team he really wants to play for – for him to finally cave. Having committed to paying the player’s £80,000-a-week wages in full, we are now reliant on Carroll to fully embrace life in east London.

Assuming that he does score the goals that merit the £1.5m loan fee and £3m+ wages, his stock will rise back to where it was during his peak at Newcastle, and it seems unlikely that he would choose to stay at West Ham, a club that simply does not have the resources and infrastructure to compete at the top of the Premier League. The woeful defensive display at Swansea last weekend was a worrying reminder of how weak our defensive players are. Carroll has the ability to score plenty of goals, but he can’t keep them out at the other end.

If we are going into this deal happy for Carroll to do a job for us for one season and secure us a place in next year’s Premier League (when the new, more lucrative TV rights kick in) then all well and good, but that really makes this acquisition a sticking plaster, rather than a building block. After years of boom and bust, wouldn’t some stability and steady progression be preferable?

As with the Tevez-Mascherano deal, it is the unknowns that are most scary. The motivations behind the deal are key. We now know that the deal with Kia Joorabchian was made possible because he had aspirations to buy the club and saw this deal as a way of getting a foot in the door. But Terry Brown didn’t want to sell the club to him. Hence, the deal was flawed from the outset.

I cannot state the exact motivations behind this deal, and it is that which worries me. What I do know is that Andy Carroll shares the same agent, Mark Curtis, as Sam Allardyce. Curtis is also the agent of Matt Jarvis, for whom we have just paid £10.5m. He also became the agent of James Tomkins, shortly before he was rewarded with a new, much-improved contract. Read into that what you will.

I wish it were otherwise, but 25 years of supporting West Ham has taught me that if something feels too good to be true, it almost definitely is. A club with £80m debt paying £80,000-a-week wages is too good to be true. In fact, it's not really good at all, is it.

Follow Love In The Time Of Collison @OnWestHam

Monday 13 August 2012

A different league – 2012/13 preview


Of all the lame straplines that have been bounded about since victory at Wembley in May, there is one that stands out for its sheer crapness: ‘Back Where We Belong’. In a post-Tevez saga world, this misguided sense of entitlement is why many struggle to warm to the modern West Ham. When Sam Allardyce is your manager, generating new reasons for others to dislike you really isn’t necessary. The idea that any one team belongs in the Premier League implies that there are teams who do not belong, which – with the exception of Wigan – is nonsense.

Is Modibo Maiga the new Freddie Kanoute? Is Freddie Kanoute the old Modibo Maiga?

The top flight is not where we belong; it’s where we want to be – and merit will dictate whether we stay there or not. For all last season’s drama, thinking back to points accrued through uninspiring one-goal wins during the cold winter months (games against Coventry, Barnsley and Portsmouth spring to mind), it is hard not to rejoice at the prospect of Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs, opposition that will be hard to beat, but who guarantee an entertaining contest.

Many fans have been underwhelmed by the preseason transfer activity, but a glance back to the 2005/06 season, when West Ham swiftly progressed from a 6th-place Championship team to ninth place in the Premier League, demonstrates that a host of big-name signings is not an imperative. The only new signings that lined up against Blackburn for the big kick off in August 2005 were Danny Gabbidon, Paul Konchesky and Yossi Benayoun. David Sullivan could make life easier for himself by ceasing to link the club with unrealistic transfer targets such as Fernando Torres and Carlos Tevez.

Key to avoiding getting sucked into the relegation scrap will be hitting the ground running by building on the momentum of the last few weeks of the previous season in which we were defeated just once in the final 21 games. The frustration of visiting teams parking the bus at Upton Park should be a thing of the past, so season-ticket holders will hope that the 11 home wins of last season is a realistic target against stronger, but less cautious opposition.

I am not even going to attempt to guess what the 2012/13 season will bring. While Everton are guaranteed to finish no higher than fifth and no lower than eighth, West Ham’s range would seem to stretch anywhere from eighth to bottom. No other team goes into this season with such immeasurable expectations.

The goalkeepers

I believe we have one of the division’s best reserve goalkeepers; I’m just not sure who he is: Jussi Jääskeläinen or Stephen Henderson? Preseason friendlies suggest that Jussi gets the nod as number one but, given that he spent the second half of last season as a substitute in a team heading towards the Championship, Henderson has reason for encouragement.

Over the last two or three decades, the number one spot has generally been an area of strength for West Ham: Rob Green, David James, Shaka Hislop, Ludek Miklosko, Phil Parkes, etc. It therefore feels strange to go into this season with two keepers who both spent most of last season warming the bench. Henderson’s time at Portsmouth suggests he is a good prospect who may be eased into the team over the next season or two, while Jussi is still an experienced, safe pair of hands, even if he is not exactly enjoying his heyday.

The defenders

For James Tomkins – who may or may not be used as a defender – the 2012/13 season is pivotal for his career. A brilliant season in the Championship led to rumours of interest from Tottenham and Newcastle. Fans take his presence in the starting 11 as a given, but those with slightly longer memories will remember just how much he struggled at this level, especially during the 2009/10 season under Gianfranco Zola. His half-time substitution during the disastrous 3-1 defeat to Wolves is a reminder of how strong he was to recover from that nadir, but also a warning against complacency.

The full-back positions remain the squad’s biggest weakness. Big Sam knows his stats better than I do, and perhaps this is just not a priority for him. By contrast, I remember only too well our last hapless season in the Premier League. I am loath to use Lars Jacobsen, Julien Faubert, Herita Ilunga, Wayne Bridge and Tal Ben Haim as scapegoats, but they weren’t the best, were they? Macca has performed well for us at this level before and deserves his chance, but I do worry about how he will fair against the top teams. Guy Demel, meanwhile, can be summed up in one word: liability.

With the exception of Julian Dicks and Tony Cottee, I have never been so happy at the return of a player as that of James Collins. Welcome home.

James Collins experiments with hair

The midfielders

Kevin Nolan, Mark Noble, Gary O’Neil, Jack Collison, Alou Diarra, Mohamed Diame, not to mention James Tomkins. I don’t know about you, but I reckon we’re sorted for centre midfielders. Matt Taylor and RVT should provide the width. I think that covers it.

The forwards

We have the best forwards in this division by a country mile. What’s that? We’re not in the Championship anymore? Oh.

For many fans who spent last season watching poor Carlton chase lost causes and high balls launched from our penalty box, the prospect of a repeat this year may feel like too much to bear. Still, it worked. Just. And having reached double figures for the last four years, I for one believe Carlton – my favourite of all the Coles – is a big asset.

I’m not going to pretend to know the first thing about new recruit Modibo Maiga, aside from a five-minute YouTube clip I saw, in which he scored lots of Ligue 1 goals. Hopefully, he’ll be the next Freddie Kanoute – one that doesn’t piss off to Spurs.

Sam Baldock’s omission from the squad that travelled to Portugal this weekend suggests that his West Ham career is over. A 50% goal ratio belied the fact that he never really convinced. Nicky Maynard simply wasn’t given the chance. Like Baldock, he didn’t seem an obvious Allardycian signing (a ‘wardrobe’ he is not) and it remains to be seen exactly how Big Sam would incorporate him into his system.

And don’t write off Brian Montenegro. You already have? Oh, ok.

The gaffer

I love Big Sam. There – I’ve said it. I don’t like it when he uses the word ‘deluded’ to describe our supporters and sometimes his style of play makes my eyes bleed – but in a way that Alan Pardew and Alan Curbishley had prepared me for. But last season, for every goalless draw with Bristol City, there was a 4+ goal hiding of Watford, or Forest, or Blackpool, or Barnsley, or Brighton.

Most of Zola’s tenure and all of Avram Grant’s was nothing short of a humiliation. Zola used to laugh in post-match interviews when we had just lost. Allardyce has brought back pride to this club. I have no desire to become a Millwall-esqe no-one-likes-us club, but if this season we find ourselves on the end of negative comments from the opposition, it will mean one thing – we’re winning matches.

Irons.